16% below peak! Nomura projects this target for Nifty 50-end stock market news

Global brokerage Nomura has estimated the index to reach 23,784 by the end of 2025 in September 2024, with its peak to Nifty50. Japanese brokerage hopes that Smell To trade within a range of 21,800–25,700, a possible decline of 5 percent at the lower end and a reverse of 12 percent on the upper range.

Nomura has faced a one-year-old evaluation range for a year 17–20 times for Nifty50, suggesting that the index may move towards the bottom of this limit. Brokerage blamed the recent six -month market improvement, including a 23 per cent decline in small cap and 21 per cent fall in midcaps, for market fatigue after a long rally, which determined high investor expectations. .

Investment strategy and field priorities

Nomura advised investors to be highly selective and avoid stock with stretch. This identified two primary risks affecting the market spirit: Investment growth increases equity risk premium due to recession and global trade conflicts and comprehensive economic uncertainty. While the brokerage predicts slow economic growth in FY 26, it expects Gross domestic product To expand at a strong speed in FY27.

Despite a potential rebound of 25,700 in the Best-Case scenario, Nomura stated that the Nifty would still be below its all-time high of 26,277.35 recorded in September 2024.

Sectorley, Nomura financial, consumer staple/FMCG, oil and gas, telecommunications, electricity, pharma, internet and real estate are overweight. This consumer has a low weight on discretionary, auto, capital goods, cement, hospitals and metals.

In stock-specific recommendations, Nomura has a ‘add’ rating Axis bank And take out a ‘stance’ Nippon Life India Asset Management (Name), Hyundai Motor IndiaAnd Gay Vennova T&D IndiaIt has a ‘add’ rating on it Voltas And ABB But a ‘Remove’ rating Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL).

Brokerage mentioned that the value of the Nifty-to-Kamai (P/E) had recorded a decline of a year of 21.3x to 19.0x from 21.3x at the peak of September 2024.

Q3Fy25 Income and Market Performance

According to Nomura, India’s stock market has seen a strong rally over the years, which has raised high expectations for earning. However, weak government capital expenditure, global trade policy can affect headwind income-to-GDP ratio such as headwind income-to-GDP ratio.

Since January 2025, unanimous income estimates for December 2026 have been reduced by 3.5 percent. Nomura estimated a 3-6 percent reduction in potential consensus earnings for FY26-FY27, further slight cuts are still possible.

In its BSE 200+ coverage universe, Nomura analyzed Q3Fy25 income trends in 228 companies, reporting a net profit increase of 16 percent year after year. Two companies-Bharti Airtel And state Bank of India (SBI) – There is an increase of 44 percent for an increase in income. Adjustment for significant forest-offs, increase in overall income was 11 percent, which improved by an increase of 6 percent seen in the last two quarters.

Except for financial, goods and telecommunications, the year-to-year PAT growth for Q3Fy25 was 6 percent, which marks the recession compared to the previous two quarters. Sales and Ebitda’s growth was 10 percent and 9 percent respectively.

Of the 174 companies with unanimous estimates, 57 percent of the omission expectations, although the overall earnings were 4 percent higher than the consensus estimates.

Future approach and development estimates

Nomura is expected to have a cyclical economic reform from the climb of Q2Fy25, which is managed by the increase in government spending and a greater adjustment by the Central Bank Policy. However, brokerage corporate income-to-GDP ratio is cautious about close-term improvement, which can limit the development of earning relative to economic expansion.

Construction of consensus is currently an increase in income of 8.6 percent in FY 25, 16.1 percent in FY 26 and 13.8 percent in FY 27. In the period of FY24-27, the BSE 200+ is expected to post 12.7 percent of the CAGR in the universe, which exceeds the 11.1 percent nominal GDP growth expectations.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We recommend investors to investigate with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.